US Inflation Falls

On a monthly basis, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2%, below analysts’ expectations of 0.3%, suggesting that inflationary pressures remained contained despite ongoing uncertainty fuelled by trade tensions and tariff policies.

The US Consumer Price Index is a set of price indices calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Russia-Ukraine War: Peace Talks Make Progress

US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, held a phone call on Monday focused on the war in Ukraine, amid renewed White House efforts to promote a ceasefire to end more than three years of armed conflict.
According to Russian state agency TASS, Putin stated during the conversation that Russia is willing to collaborate with Kyiv on a memorandum for a future peace treaty.

The bilateral contact came just days after representatives from Kyiv and Moscow met in Istanbul for the first time since 2022. Although no ceasefire deal was reached, the meeting resulted in an agreement to exchange 1,000 prisoners from each side and kept the door open for future negotiations.

US-India Trade Deal in Sight

President Trump stated on Thursday that India had proposed a trade deal offering “zero tariffs” on American products.
New Delhi is aiming to close a trade agreement with the US during the 90-day pause announced by Trump on 9 April regarding tariff hikes for key trade partners. “It’s very hard to sell in India, and now they’re offering us a deal where they basically won’t charge any tariffs,” said Trump.

India is seen as a potential alternative to China, offering similarly low labour costs.

In line with this strategy, New Delhi has proposed reducing tariffs to zero on 60% of tariff lines in the first phase of the agreement under negotiation with Washington, while granting preferential access to nearly 90% of goods India imports from the US.

India’s equity benchmarks soared to seven-month highs following Trump's remarks. In March, Apple’s key Indian suppliers, Foxconn and Tata, shipped nearly $2 billion worth of iPhones to the US—an unprecedented figure aimed at bypassing Trump’s upcoming tariffs.

The US remains India’s top trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching approximately $129 billion in 2024. The trade balance currently favours India, with a surplus of $45.7 billion.

From China to India: Shift Driven by Tariff War

Apple has airlifted around 1.5 million iPhones from India to the US in recent weeks, as part of a bold strategy to avoid the impact of steep US tariffs on Chinese imports.

Shipments come as Apple ramps up production in India, aiming to avoid the 125% US tariff on Chinese goods—far higher than the current 26% rate on Indian products.

According to Reuters, Apple is seeking a 20% increase in iPhone production by adding more workers to its Indian plants.

US-China Trade Deal: Talks on Track

Washington will temporarily reduce tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while Beijing will lower its rates from 125% to 10%, according to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent following a weekend of negotiations in Geneva.

The Chinese government said “the door is open for dialogue” with the US, provided discussions are based on equality and mutual respect. However, it warned that if Washington continues its threats and coercion, it will “fight to the end.”

Both sides are expected to work together to resolve their differences through dialogue and consultation, “in the spirit of mutual respect,” peaceful coexistence, and mutually beneficial cooperation.

Bank of America Raises Price Targets for NVIDIA and AMD

Bank of America raised its price targets for NVIDIA and AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) on Wednesday, citing major wins in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure projects.

The target for NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) was increased to $160 from $150, while AMD’s target was raised to $130 from $120 per share.

What drove the upgrades? NVIDIA and AMD announced separate sovereign AI infrastructure projects with HUMAIN, a subsidiary of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund.

Bank of America estimates these projects could generate $3–5 billion annually, or $15–20 billion over several years.

Focus on NVIDIA

• Sovereign AI infrastructure project with HUMAIN, a subsidiary of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund.
• NVIDIA expected to receive around $7 billion in direct contracts.
• Phase 1 includes delivery of approximately 18,000 Blackwell GPUs, valued at $700 million.
• Over five years, several hundred thousand advanced NVIDIA GPUs are expected to be delivered.
• NVIDIA unveiled its GeForce RTX 50 series featuring advanced AI tech like DLSS 4 Frame Generation and the Blackwell GPU.

Focus on AMD

• Also working on a sovereign AI infrastructure project with HUMAIN, likely to begin in 2026.
• Includes CPUs, GPUs, networking, and its open-source ROCm software platform.
• AMD introduced new AI chips like the MI325X and CDNA 4 architecture for 2025, promising up to 35x AI inference performance gains over previous generations.
• AMD targets $4 billion in AI accelerator sales in 2025.
• The HUMAIN deal could be worth up to $10 billion for AMD.

Google: Attractively Priced

On Tuesday, BMO Capital Markets reiterated an Outperform rating for Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) with a solid $200.00 price target.

The stock currently appears undervalued based on InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis.

BMO’s report highlights ongoing development in Google’s Gemini project and the upcoming launch of Android 16, which is expected to enhance user experience across its vast device ecosystem.

Watch UNH

UNH shares have dropped nearly 40% year-to-date, including a 20% plunge in a single session. The sell-off is attributed to:
• Disappointing financial results
• Forecast cuts and eventual suspension
• Unexpected rise in medical costs
• Leadership crisis
• Negative reactions from analysts and institutional investors

The company aims to return to growth by 2026, but uncertainty around cost dynamics and the new management team's ability to stabilise the business continues to weigh on its stock.

What About the EU and the US?

Time is running out for the EU to strike a deal with Washington and avoid steep tariffs, with odds stacked against a breakthrough due to the bloc’s significant trade deficit and internal divisions.

If no agreement is reached before the 9 July deadline, nearly 70% of all EU exports to the US will be hit with a 20% tariff—double the current 10% rate.

“We suspect a US-EU deal is not imminent. The US likely has less motivation to reach an agreement with the EU than it did with the UK or China,” said Capital Economics, highlighting Washington’s apparent lack of urgency.

The EU’s sizeable trade surplus with the US and the difficulty of reaching consensus among the 27 member states are key hurdles.

Nevertheless, recent deals with the UK and China offer the EU insights into how Washington is structuring its trade agreements.

US Credit Rating Downgraded

US Treasury yields rose late on Friday after falling for most of the session, following Moody’s downgrade of the US government’s credit rating from AAA to AA1, citing concerns over deteriorating fiscal performance.

Two-year Treasury yields surged 2 basis points (bps) to 3.993%, while benchmark 10-year yields reversed earlier losses to climb to 4.499%.

What's Happening with Gold?

Gold prices fell on Friday and were heading for their largest weekly drop in six months, as a strong dollar and fading trade war concerns reduced its safe-haven appeal.

Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said on Thursday that the US economy remains solid, with inflation trending toward the central bank’s 2% target. However, he noted that trade policies have clouded the outlook.

While immediate concerns have eased, risks remain regarding the enforcement of tariffs, which—even when reduced—still pose inflationary threats and could dampen demand.

Tesla Executives Sell Stock

Amid a financial storm and a reputational crisis, Tesla board chair Robyn Denholm sold a significant portion of her shares—worth approximately $230 million—while Elon Musk urged investors to hold their positions.

The contrast is stark: as the company fights to regain market and customer confidence, its top board member appears to distance herself from the fate of Tesla’s employees and shareholders.

According to Associated Press, Denholm sold over $230 million in Tesla stock since Musk expressed his support for Donald Trump following the assassination attempt.

Crypto: Institutional Capital Flows In

Institutional investment in digital assets and related ETFs rose by 35% so far in May 2025, surpassing $46 billion.

“Any major correction in US equities is likely to be an opportunity for investors,” analysts suggest.

Regulation is becoming clearer in key jurisdictions like the US and the EU, where certain crypto ETFs have been approved—allowing institutional investors to comply with strict rules without sacrificing digital market exposure.