EUROPE: WILL THE ECB CUT RATES IN 2025?

The Eurozone unemployment rate rose to 6.3% in August, up from 6.2% in July, according to Eurostat data. The number of unemployed workers increased by roughly 11,000, hinting at a mild slowdown in economic activity.

This uptick strengthens the case for the European Central Bank (ECB) to consider a potential rate cut next year after months of maintaining steady policy.

The rise in unemployment may encourage policymakers to prioritize economic recovery over inflation control in the coming quarters.

₿ CITI RAISES PRICE TARGETS FOR BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM

Citi Bank has increased its price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum, citing stronger-than-expected inflows and growing institutional adoption.

• Bitcoin: year-end target at $132,000, and a 12-month target at $181,000.
• Ethereum: year-end projection at $4,500, and 12-month outlook at $5,440.

Analysts wrote that both assets are trading above statistical activity-based metrics, supported by robust ETF inflows and rising participation from digital-asset treasuries. Citi expects a moderate rally into year-end, with higher gains anticipated through 2026.

MICROSOFT AND NVIDIA: LEADING THE AI REVOLUTION

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) has secured access to more than 100,000 next-generation Nvidia GB300 chips through its partnership with Nebius Group NV, according to Bloomberg.

The $19.4 billion deal, first announced on 8 September, will provide the computing power needed for large language model development and consumer-grade AI assistants.

This strategic move strengthens Microsoft’s position as a global AI leader, ensuring the infrastructure necessary to optimize innovation and scalability.

🇺🇸 U.S. GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN: MARKET IMPACT AND UNCERTAINTY

The U.S. government shutdown has officially begun and could last more than a week.

During this period, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will halt the collection and publication of data, including CPI and Non-Farm Payrolls, creating uncertainty and pressuring the U.S. dollar, which ended the week lower.

If the shutdown concludes soon, there’s still a chance that key data could be released before the FOMC meeting on 29 October. However, political negotiations remain stalled, with both parties showing little willingness to compromise.

🇧🇷 BRAZIL: CENTRAL BANK HOLDS RATES AMID ECONOMIC RESILIENCE

The Central Bank of Brazil continues to observe signs of resilience in the economy despite a broader slowdown.

Governor Gabriel Galipolo reaffirmed the institution’s data-driven approach to monetary policy, keeping interest rates at 15%, their highest in nearly two decades.

This stance aims to stabilize inflation and maintain confidence in the Brazilian real, while signalling that policy tightening could persist until inflationary pressures ease.

HISTORIC HEALTHCARE DEAL: TRUMP AND PFIZER

Investors cheered an unprecedented drug-pricing agreement between Donald Trump and Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE), which triggered the largest rally in five years across the U.S. healthcare sector.

The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLV) surged more than 5%, marking its best two-day performance since 2020.

The deal includes:
• Up to 80% direct patient discounts on selected drugs.
• Most-favoured-nation pricing for all U.S. Medicaid state programmes.
• Repatriation of overseas profits and a $70 billion reinvestment in domestic pharmaceutical production.
• Participation in TrumpRx.gov, a federal platform designed to modernize access to discounted medicines for U.S. consumers.

GOLD AT RECORD HIGHS

Gold has gained more than 45% so far in 2025, climbing above $3,000 per ounce for the first time in March. In September alone, it rose another 11%.

Analysts point to expectations of softer U.S. economic data and potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as key drivers.

According to a Goldman Sachs report, gold could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 if the trend of monetary easing continues and geopolitical tensions persist.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH THIS WEEK

Markets will closely monitor speeches from ECB President Christine Lagarde (Monday 17:00) and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey (Monday 17:30).

Additionally, PMI data, retail sales figures and the PCE index are expected to shape expectations for future rate moves in Europe and the United Kingdom.

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